Just in time for Halloween, the Brazilian administration spooked us with its first guess as to the size of the 2016-17 soybean crop.
Conab, an agency of Brazil’s Ministry of Agriculture has just issued its first estimate of 2016-17 crop production, calling for a production increase over last year of between .6 and 2.7%. And that would mean Brazil should produce about 101 million tonnes of beans this cycle, which is up from the country’s estimated production last time around of 96.5 million tonnes.
More beans, always more beans
Some of that increased production will be due to a slight bump upward in the national yield, to 45.5 bushels per acre over last season’s 44.6. And that on a 2016-17 planted area estimated at 81.8 million acres.
Total soy exports for the season are pegged at 57 million tonnes, with much of that going to China.
Total 2016-17 Brazilian corn production — between main-crop and second-crop—is slated to come in at between 53.4 and 55.5 million tonnes as livestock producers begin to rebuild layer, broiler and swine populations.
In fact, Paraguayan and Argentine corn producers have benefitted as Brazilian livestock producers have had to import something like a million tonnes of corn, with Brazilian 2017 imports projected at 500,000 more tonnes by January.
With a La Nina situation before them, and a poor 2015-16 season in the rearview mirror, we’ll have to wait and see how Brazilian producers react. But at least one reliable source is looking forward to yet more beans for the coming season.
The opinions of the author are not necessarily those of Farm Futures or Penton Agriculture.