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Weekly Grain Movement – Wheat gets a fresh start

Wheat export inspections kick off the 2018/19 marketing year.

For the week ending June 7, weekly grain export inspections fared fairly well, landing on the high end of trade estimates, but facing a mixed bag of results overall, depending on which metrics were reviewed.

Those mixed results include wheat, which beat the prior week’s results, but failed to meet the weekly rate needed to reach USDA forecasts, and immediately started its 2018/19 marketing year slower than the prior year. Totals last week reached 13.6 million bushels, better than the prior week’s total of 12.8 million bushels but short of USDA’s weekly forecast rate of 17.5 million bushels. Year-to-date totals are also less than half of the early pace of 2017/18, with an admittedly small sample size (wheat’s marketing year began June 1). 

Japan and the Philippines shared the No. 1 destination for U.S. wheat inspections last week, with 2.1 million bushels apiece. Other top destinations included Guatemala (1.8 million bushels), Sri Lanka (1.5 million bushels), Ecuador (1.4 million bushels), Mexico (1.1 million bushels) and South Korea (1.0 million bushels).

Corn export inspections last week reached 55.5 million bushels – slower than the prior week’s pace of 61.3 million bushels, but good enough to reach the high end of trade estimates of 39 million to 66 million bushels, as well as the weekly rate needed to reach USDA forecasts, now at 47.1 million bushels. The marketing year-to-date totals for 2017/18 have reached 1.613 billion bushels, down more than 9% from the prior year’s pace of 1.787 billion bushels.

Mexico was the top destination for U.S. corn export inspections last week, with 11.9 million bushels. Other top destinations included Japan (8.4 million bushels), Vietnam (8.1 million bushels), South Korea (5.8 million bushels) and Saudi Arabia (5.5 million bushels).

Soybean export inspections last week reached 23.7 million bushels, which was a small improvement over the prior week’s total of 21.1 million bushels and this week a year ago, at 18.8 million bushels. It also reached the high end of trade estimates that ranged between 14 million and 25 million bushels, but it did not match the weekly rate needed to meet USDA forecasts, now at 24.7 million bushels. Marketing year-to-date totals reached 1.744 million bushels, down 8% from 2016/17’s pace of 1.898 billion.

Indonesia was the week’s top destination for U.S. soybean export inspections with 4.8 million bushels – barely besting the usual No. 1, China (which came in at 4.6 million bushels). Mexico also reached 4.6 million bushels, and other top destinations included Pakistan (2.5 million bushels), Portugal (1.7 million bushels), Malaysia (1.2 million bushels) and Canada (1.1 million bushels).

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