Spring wheat ’s condition dropped for the second straight week, the latest being a 10 point tumble to 45% good to excellent, which was well under many trade forecasts with declines noted in the Dakotas, where dry conditions continued to hurt the crop.
Winter wheat’s condition improved slightly to 50% good/excellent. That crop was 17% harvested, which was ahead of last year and the five-year average.
Corn slipped 1 point to 68% good/excellent in USDA’s weekly progress report , hurt by slippage in Illinois, Indiana, Nebraska and North Dakota. North Dakota’s condition tumbled 9 points to 58% good/ excellent. Corn in Iowa was unchanged, while Ohio’s improved 1 point to 50% good/excellent.
The first soybean rating of the season was 65% good/excellent, which was down from last year’s 74%.
In other tallies, corn emergence reached 94% to match the average, soybean emergence 77% versus the 73% average, and the winter wheat harvest was at 17% versus the 15% average.
“Another big drop in spring wheat conditions matched the decline in Vegetation Health Index maps this week, pointing to yield losses topping 3 bpa on average,” said Bryce Knorr, Farm Futures senior grain analyst. “Farm Futures’ models put the spring wheat crop between 42.5 and 43.4 bpa nationwide. That suggests the all-wheat crop could be 20 million to 30 million bushels less than USDA forecasts, and should provide some support to Minneapolis futures.”
Winter wheat improved slightly, but not enough to offset the potential decline in spring wheat, said Knorr.
“Corn ratings edged lower, taking 1.7 bpa off yield potential, but projections remain fairly strong. Our models based on ratings put the yield between 168 and 170 bpa, a little less than the statistical trend yield USDA has plugged into its production forecasts,” he said.
“Initial soybean ratings were fairly good, pointing to yields around 49 bpa. That’s below the record level of 2016 but still above the tried plugged into USDA forecasts.”
North Dakota’s state report blamed the decline in corn and wheat ratings on dry conditions.
“North Dakota received little to no rain while parts of the east received up to an inch. However, many areas receiving rain were still short and need additional moisture soon to help crop development,” the state said. “Temperatures for the week averaged 2 to 8 degrees above normal.”
North Dakota’s spring wheat crop slipped 9 points to 43% good/excellent and South Dakota’s dropped 12 points to 13%.
Nationally, sorghum was 71% planted versus the 73% average and 77% headed versus the 73% average.