Most years the soybean market would be ready to turn the corn on harvest lows, especially given current fundamentals. Exports are surging, basis is on fire and talk about South American weather is beginning to heat up.
Alas, 2008 is no normal year. The soybean market, like everything else, remains dogged by headline news in the financial markets. The sharp break in the crude oil market caused by a massive exodus of hedge fund money and fears of global recession, only adds to the worries caused by fluctuations and fear on Wall Street.
Then, too, the market is still trying to come to grips with all those acres from 2007 and 2008 found over the past month by USDA. Supplies aren't as tight as once feared, though you wouldn't know it by the moves in the cash market. Basis surged last week as shippers scrambled to fill export contracts from a pipeline depleted by the slow pace of harvest. The combines are mostly done cutting now but farmers are unwilling to part with their crop after the prices enjoyed over the winter, spring and summer. Export sales are also strong, thanks to renewed buying from