Traders weren't expecting much in the way of export sales for corn in this morning's weekly tally from USDA. That may be the only reason they weren't disappointed by a disappointing number.
Net new bookings for the last full week of the 2011 crop marketing year dropped due to cancellations, taking 4.1 million bushels off the total to date. The lull is reflected by very weak basis in the export market, as tight supplies and high costs force buyers to search for alternatives around the world.
New crop sales barely beat the total of old crop reductions, with shipments also weak. Still, the data is in line with USDA current forecast for the 2011 crop, once adjustments from Census Bureau records are added back in.
Wheat sales of 21.1 million bushels beat trade guesses and were above the weekly rate forecast by USDA for the end of the marketing year. This week's totals included the first signs that end users are ready to book large deals, with Nigeria in for 9.5 million bushels and Mexico taking a couple of loads too.
Though Egypt has been aggressively buying wheat out of the Black Sea, there are indications that supply may soon be limited, forcing end users to look elsewhere. The dollar is also weaker, giving foreign customers greater purchasing power.
Soybean sales and shipments continue to beat the pace forecast by USDA, though the total for the week, 19.3 million bushels, was below aggressive trade expectations. China remains the dominant customer, taking 16.6 million bushels, mostly new crop.
Current totals suggest USDA is likely to increase its forecast of 2011 crop exports in next week's Sept. 12 supply and demand report. That should knock 15 to 20 million bushels off carryout, tightening new crop inventories even further on the heels of this year's drought.