Exports Sluggish As May Ended

Exports Sluggish As May Ended

Latest weekly tally increases odds USDA could lower its forecast for corn and wheat in June supply and demand report.

Traders weren’t expecting much from today’s weekly export sales report, and in that respect they weren’t disappointed. Otherwise, however, the total for the last full week of May showed higher prices keeping many buyers on the sidelines.

Wheat sales totaled 11.3 million bushels, but all of the gains came from new crop. Sales actually lost ground for old crop as the end of the 2010 marketing season approached. (Today’s reports shows sales through May 26.) New crop buyers generally took a load or less, suggesting hand to mouth buying while end users wait to see how crops develop around the northern hemisphere. In particular, many buyers out of Asia and the Middle East are waiting for supplies to become available out of the Black Sea now that export restrictions from Ukraine and Russia are history.

Total shipments for the 2010 marketing year to date suggest USDA may be at least 25 million bushels too high on its forecast for old crop; the agency updates supply and demand projections on Thursday.

Corn sales in the latest week came in at 27.6 million, a little below trade guesses. Japan was far and away the biggest buyer, with most other countries in Asia, the Middle East and the Americas taking a load or less. Shipments of 35.4 million bushels were decent, but still below the rate needed weekly during the last three months of the market year in order to meet USDA’s forecast.

Soybean sales of 5.7 million bushels were slightly below last week’s tally, failing to meet trade expectations. Shipments totaling 9.7 million were below the rate needed to meet USDA’s marketing year forecast, though the complex still looks on track with USDA’s forecast.

For the complete export report, click here.

Weekly Export Sales (million bushels)

AS OF WEEK ENDING

5/19/11

Actual

Last Week

Trade Est.

Export Ship-ments

% of USDA Commit.

Ave.

% of USDA Ship-ments

Ave.

Wheat

       11.3

    15.9

    12.9

34.4

95%

90%

71%

75%

Corn

       27.6

    30.7

    29.5

35.4

90%

89%

68%

73%

Soybeans

         5.7

      5.8

      9.2

9.7

99%

96%

88%

87%

Source: USDA, Reuters


TAGS: USDA
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