USDA on Tuesday will confirm or refute widespread expectations that the United States is on the brink of harvesting record corn and soybean crops.
Harvest is still about a month or more away and unexpected weather could still develop and hurt production. However, growing season weather so far has been nearly ideal with regular rain showers in most of the Midwest and a lack of crop damaging heat.
"Big crop estimates look likely from USDA, unless dry conditions seen lately in parts of the northwest Midwest are having a greater impact than crop ratings indicate," said Bryce Knorr, Farm Futures senior grain analyst. "That's more of a possibility for soybeans than corn, and November futures do have a seasonal tendency not to break in August during the year after a bull market. Tight old crop supplies could support new crop too, at least a little longer."
Farm Futures surveyed more than 1,325 growers by email July 21 to Aug. 4. Tuesday's report will be USDA's first estimate of 2014 corn and soybean production based on surveys of farmers and their fields.
Expectations for big crops have been seen in Chicago grain markets. Corn futures fell to a four- year low in July and have since stayed in a narrow trading range. November soybean futures have been a little more volatile, but have stayed under $11 in recent weeks.
"It's hard to be bullish corn, unless the market's expectations, confirmed by our survey, are just plain wrong, at least according to USDA. That could always happen, which kept prices from breaking too hard the week before the report," said Knorr.
The following are estimates from the Farm Futures survey and from a Reuters poll on what the USDA report will show. The report will be released at 11 a.m. CDT.