Here are complete results from our 26-year study of pre-harvest selling strategies. Files are presented for different locations around the Midwest, for both 2010 and the other years covered by the project. Results show performance on the basis of both per bushel and per acre basis.
Three selling windows were examined: Early April, mid-May and late June. Averages for these three windows are also presented, along with average prices during two windows, from Jan. 1 to Sept 1, and from March 1 to Sept. 1.
Some strategies combined the sale of futures or an HTA with the purchase of a call options. Results assume calls were bought on seasonal weakness in late February, late April and late May before the sales were made in early April, mid-May and late June.
The study is based on futures and options settlements and cash prices during the 1985-2010 crop years. Revenues are weighted by statewide yields, taking into account gains and losses from yields being more or less than expected, assuming 100% of 10-year statewide average yields are sold on dates indicated. Harvest dates varied according to date 50% of crops are harvested in weekly crop progress reports. Brokerage commissions figured at 1 cent per bushel.
1985-2010 Summary By Terminal
1985-2010 Summary By Year
2010 Summary By Terminal
Garden City, KS
North Central Iowa