Global Hot Spots: Argentine political win could boost corn production

Global Hot Spots: Argentine political win could boost corn production

Australia crop estimates lowered as rain stays away; Canada wheat production seen down 11%

1. Argentine political win could boost corn production - Reuters

Should opposition presidential candidate Mauricio Macri go on to win Argentina's presidential election, farmers could increase corn production because his free-market policies would likely end corn export restrictions and eliminate crop export taxes, according to a Reuters analysis.

The presidential election is Nov. 22 and voters will decide between Macri and ruling party candidate Daniel Scioli, who is an ally of outgoing President Cristina Fernandez. A win by Macri would give farmers time to plant more corn before the planting season ends.

2. Australia crop estimates lowered as rain stays away - attache

Australia crop estimates lowered as rain stays away; Canada wheat production seen down 11%

Production estimates for Australia's barley, sorghum and wheat crops have been lowered as rain has been scarce during the southern hemisphere spring growing season.

The changing outlook for grains production was highlighted by an El Niño update from the Bureau of Meteorology which warned of worsening conditions for wheat and other winter crops, due in particular to lower-than-expected soil moisture conditions.

The continent is the world's seventh largest wheat producer and fourth largest exporter. USDA's attache now expects a 24 million metric ton wheat harvest, down 3 million from USDA's latest estimates. That would still be up from last year's 23.7 million.

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Sorghum production is forecast to decline slightly to two million metric ton but further revisions are possible if the El Niño pattern intensifies. Rice production is constrained by water availability in southern Australia, but is slowly expanding in Queensland. The official 2015/16 forecast of 470,000 metric tons of milled rice is unchanged.

3. Canada wheat production seen down 11% - attache

Total Canada wheat production in 2015/2016 is forecast to be down 11% drop due to abnormally dry conditions during the growing season. This crop year for Canadian wheat is August 2015 to July 2016

That decline in wheat offsets increases in barley, corn and oats production levels. Wheat production is expected at 26.061 million tons, down from the previous year's 29.4 million.

 Wheat exports are forecast to fall to the five-year average level of 20 million metric tons, however that is up from USDA's current market-year forecast of 19 million. Barley, corn and oats exports should remain near the previous year's levels, the report said.

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