China’s decision to allow the market to determine corn prices sent those prices tumbling and will likely mean less corn production this year and more wheat and rice, USDA’s attache’s office said this week.
The policy also will lead to reduced imports of feed ingredients of sorghum, barley and DDGS, as domestic corn will now be more affordable for livestock producers.
The new policy has the attache expecting a 3% drop in corn production this year (Oct-Sept) to 218 million metric tons. The drop could have been larger but the government’s changes occurred after many farmers had made their corn planting decisions. It said corn acreage could drop more the following year.
Imports of corn for the next Oct-Sept crop year are forecast at 1 million metric tons, compared with 2.5 million in the current year. Sorghum imports may drop to 5 million tons from 6 million, barley to 6 million from 6.9 million. The attache report did not provide a forecast for DDG imports.
The lower corn prices after China’s new policy should increase feed consumption, but the attache said such an increase may be limited because of a 6% decline in the swine herd. Also, the previous high corn prices have had swine and poultry producers using lower cost feed concentrates and premixes.
Rain hurts up to 5% of Argentina’s soybeans – Reuters
Abundant rain has ruined nearly 5% of Argentina's soybean farms and could damage more of the 2015-16 crop that is being harvested now if rains extend into next week as expected, according to a Reuters report.
Grain experts still forecast a strong harvest once the rains let up due to robust production in regions unaffected by the precipitation. Argentina is the world's No. 3 exporter of the oilseed and the leading supplier of soyoil and soymeal.
"The longer it takes for the weather to change, the worse the damage. But there are areas doing very well, which is supporting the harvest outlook," Cristian Russo, head of forecasting for the Rosario grains exchange, said in the report.
Rains hit almost half of the 20.5 million hectares (50.7 million acres) planted with soybeans in Argentina, delaying the harvest, flooding dirt roads carrying grains to port and threatening diseases due to excess humidity.
Weekly forecasts show more rain for the region through April 22.