Coming in at $50.11, a Thanksgiving dinner for 10 will cost shoppers just about 70 cents more this year than it did last year, the American Farm Bureau said last week.
The cost estimate is part of the AFBF's Thanksgiving Day food survey, now in its 30th year. A total of 138 volunteer shoppers who checked prices at grocery stores in 32 states reported the findings to AFBF.
The most expensive item on the menu is the turkey, coming in at $23.04 this year. That's roughly $1.44 per pound, an increase of less than 9 cents per pound, or a total of $1.39 per whole turkey, compared to 2014.
AFBF Deputy Chief Economist John Anderson said retail prices seem to have stabilized quite a bit for turkey, despite concerns that avian flu might curtail availability.
"There were some production disruptions earlier this year due to the highly pathogenic Avian influenza outbreak in the Midwest," he explained. Though he said turkey production is down this year, it's not a dramatic change.
"Our survey shows a modest increase in turkey prices compared to last year. But we're now starting to see retailers feature turkeys aggressively for the holiday. According to USDA retail price reports, featured prices fell sharply just last week and were actually lower than last year."
The AFBF survey shopping list includes turkey, bread stuffing, sweet potatoes, rolls with butter, peas, cranberries, a relish tray of carrots and celery, pumpkin pie with whipped cream, and beverages of coffee and milk, all in quantities sufficient to serve a family of 10. There is also plenty for leftovers.
Foods showing the largest increases this year in addition to turkey were pumpkin pie mix, a dozen brown-n-serve rolls, cubed bread stuffing and pie shells. A 30-ounce can of pumpkin pie mix was $3.20; a 14-ounce package of cubed bread stuffing, $2.61; and two nine-inch pie shells, $2.47.
"Despite concerns earlier this fall about pumpkin production due to wet weather, the supply of canned product will be adequate for this holiday season," Anderson said.
Items that declined modestly in price were mainly dairy items including one gallon of whole milk, $3.25; a combined group of miscellaneous items, including coffee and ingredients necessary to prepare the meal (butter, evaporated milk, onions, eggs, sugar and flour), $3.18; a half pint of whipping cream, $1.94; and 12 ounces of fresh cranberries, $2.29. A one-pound relish tray of carrots and celery (79 cents) and one pound of green peas ($1.52) also decreased slightly in price.
The average cost of the dinner has remained around $49 since 2011. This year's survey totaled over $50 for the first time.
"America's farmers and ranchers are able to provide a bounty of food for a classic Thanksgiving dinner that many of us look forward to all year," Anderson said. "We are fortunate to be able to provide a special holiday meal for 10 people for just over $5 per serving."
To complete the survey, Farm Bureau volunteer shoppers are asked to look for the best possible prices, without taking advantage of special promotional coupons or purchase deals, such as spending $50 and receiving a free turkey.
Shoppers with an eye for bargains in all areas of the country should be able to purchase individual menu items at prices comparable to the Farm Bureau survey averages. Another option for busy families without a lot of time to cook is ready-to-eat Thanksgiving meals for up to 10 people, with all the trimmings, which are available at many supermarkets and take-out restaurants for around $50 to $75.