The United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization this week trimmed its forecast for 2014 world cereal production by about one million metric tons, but raised its outlook for wheat.
At 2.5 billion tons, the full-year production figure for cereals, of which the most common are barley, corn, rice, and wheat, would be 3.7 million below 2013's record output.
"The downward revision reflects a dimmer outlook for China's maize production, even though global maize output is still expected to reach a new record of 1.01 billion metric tons on the back of bumper crops in the European Union and the United States," it said.
The global wheat production forecast was raised due a larger-than-expected crop in the Ukraine. That would put the global wheat crop at 722.6 million tons and above last year's record harvest.
For rice, the global forecast remained at 496.3 million tons in milled rice equivalent. That would be down 0.3% from 2013 and the first decline since 2009.
Argentina Wheat Crop Raised, Corn Reduced – Attache
Wheat production for 2014-15 is forecast at 12.5 million tons, 500,000 tons higher than USDA's current figure due to better-than-expected yields in northern Argentina, a USDA attache report said this week.
"Corn production for 2014-15 is down at 22 million tons, 1 million lower than USDA. Projected returns in many cases are negative. Exports are now forecast at 13 million tons, 1 million lower than USDA," it said.
Barley production for 2014-15 was trimmed to 3.1 million tons, 300,000 tons lower than USDA, which should lower exports to 1.8 million tons, down 200,000 tons lower than USDA.
Poor returns on sorghum should trim that crop to 3.7 million metric tons, down 500,000 from USDA's latest forecast.
Australian Wheat Crop Lowered - Attache
Australian wheat production for 2014-15 was trimmed to 24 million metric tons due to lower than expected rainfall and declining yields, a USDA attache said. That is down 1 million from USDA's latest forecast and down about 3 million from the previous harvest.
Wheat exports are forecast at 18 million metric tons, down 0.5 million from USDA's latest projection. .
Barley production may drop by one fifth to 7.5 million tons as some growers shift to wheat and canola and less rain trims yields.
Ukraine's Grain Exports On the Rise – Attache
Ukraine's grain exports have increased at moderate pace, according to the latest USDA attache report.
In the new 2014/2015 marketing year, by mid-October, Ukraine exported more than 6 million metric tons of wheat and more than one million of barley. The 2013/14 corn marketing year is about over with more than 18 million tons exported, it said.
USDA currently projects 2014/2015 wheat exports at 12 million tons, up from the previous year's 9.76 million.
Domestic grain prices at the start of the new season were lower than the previous year's and should remain low throughout the season. Winter crops have been planted in favorable fall weather conditions.