See the April 13, 2015, USDA crop progress and condition report update.
Wheat conditions deteriorated over the winter as expected, as the first USDA weekly progress and condition report largely followed patterns noted in key states that released reports over the winter.
Overall yield potential lost 2.42 bpa nationwide according to Farm Futures yield model, which put the average U.S. winter wheat yield at 45.43 in a range from 43.24 to 47.61.
USDA doesn't survey all states over the winter, taking a lull in its nationwide crop progress program at the end of November. Yields for winter wheat can vary widely because abandonment can change depending on weather conditions. Yields are calculated per harvested acre.
Most states where hard red winter wheat is grown release crop progress and crop condition estimates on a monthly, or even weekly basis during the national hiatus. As a result, today's report held few surprises for that crop, with one exception. Yield potential was off sharply this week in Kansas, reflecting winterkill and hot, dry conditions over most of the state. Yield potential dropped more than 2 bpa to 37.22 bpa, some 5.5 bushels below normal. Other conditions on the Plains were a mixed bag. Yield potential declined a little in Colorado, Nebraska, South Dakota, Oklahoma and Texas, but rose in Montana.
Fewer states with soft red winter wheat release results over the winter. But winterkill and wet fields appear to be taking their toll, sending these first spring ratings lower in Michigan, Ohio and Missouri, while Indiana was unchanged. Ratings in Illinois, which reports over the winter occasionally, improved this week, as did Arkansas and North Carolina.
In the Pacific Northwest, states that primarily grow white wheat were mixed in their first spring reports. Washington and Oregon noted improved conditions, while the crop in Idaho deteriorated.
Based on these new ratings and USDA's updated seedings report, total wheat production potential not stands at 2.009 billion bushels, down 13 million from last week and almost 200 million less than our last estimate made based on nationwide ratings in December.
As expected, USDA did not provide an initial estimate of corn planting today. Farmers made better progress in Texas, where 37% is planted though that's still below the average of 50%. Louisiana planted jumped 515 to 67%, compared to the five-year average of 93%. Mississippi was 34% planted, up 30% from last week but down from the average of 57%.
See historical breakdowns of USDA, Kansas and Texas wheat yields on page 2>>