Grain futures are turning mixed this morning following release of generally friendly data in the USDA Grain Stocks and wheat production report.
USDA put Sept. 1 soybean stocks – which become the official 2014 carryout totals – at 191 million bushels, down 19 million from the agency's previous estimate and 14 million lower than the average trade guess. The government also lowered its estimate of 2014 production after months of speculation, cutting the size of the crop by 41.7 million bushels to 3.927 billion. Estimates for planted and harvested acreage as well as yields were all reduced.
November futures initially jumped higher on the news then pared gains. Futures rallied into the report on optimism on outside markets. The lower beginning stocks starting point for the 2015 crop year may not make much difference if the crop is as big as currently projects. November was down 2 cents at 11:30 at $8.8225.
Corn also got a little spot of friendly news from the report. USDA cut its forecast of 2014 carryout by 1 million bushels to 1.731 billion bushels, a little less than the average guess in the industry. Still, that would be the most since 2005, sending prices a little lower headed into midday.
Wheat was expected to be a sideshow to soybeans and corn, but wound up in the spotlight after USDA slashed the size of the 2015 crop by 84 million bushels. Winter wheat production fell 68 million bushels, with cuts to all three classes, while other spring wheat was revised 22 million lower. Durum was the only class showing an increase, up 5 million from USDA's last estimate.
USDA said 2.089 billion bushels of wheat were still on hand Sept. 1, putting summer disappearance up 1% over last year.
The news sent wheat prices to double digit gains briefly for all three contracts, before futures began to fade the rally.
Download the Sept. 1 USDA Grain Stocks report.