Updated to add information.
USDA on Wednesday raised U.S. soybean ending stocks for the current crop year by 10 million bushels and lowered the crush the same amount as it expects a decline in soymeal usage.
Those changes coupled with perceptions China may increase purchases of non-U.S. soybeans weighed on Chicago soybean futures, which turned lower after the report.
U.S. corn and wheat numbers in the report were unchanged from February with corn ending stocks at 1.837 billion bushels and wheat at 966 million.
“The reports added little new information, but they reinforce ideas that U.S. supplies of grains and oilseeds remain burdensome headed into the growing season,” says Bryce Knorr, Farm Futures senior grain market analyst. “That limits potential for rallies unless the March 31 grain stocks or prospective plantings are bullish, but it’s unlikely those numbers will really provide much lift.”
The increase in soybean stocks was a little more than many in the trade expected, while the corn and wheat stocks came in below average trade forecasts.
“USDA raised its forecast of Chinese soybean imports by 55 million bushels. However, with U.S. commitments to China 10% lower, it appears all of that extra business is going to South America, leaving U.S. exports unchanged,” he said.
USDA lowered world soybean stocks about 2% from February, due to lower global production, while traders had expected a minor increase.
Global corn stocks dropped to nearly 207 million from February’s 208.81 million due to lower stocks in Brazil and smaller crops in South Africa and the Philippines.
“Weather troubles in the Southern Hemisphere caused by El Nino trimmed global corn ending stocks a little. But U.S. corn exports are unlikely to benefit from this, as affected countries turn to feed wheat or closer suppliers,” said Knorr.
Global wheat stocks dropped 1.2 million to nearly 237.6 million metric tons as USDA trimmed Australia’s and India’s crops.
In South America, USDA had a soft touch, leaving Argentina and Brazil’s corn and soybean crops unchanged with the corn at 27 million and 84 million metric tons, respectively, and soybeans at 58.50 million ad 100 million.
The corn and wheat futures barely moved after the report with corn about 1-1/2 cents lower on Chicago soybean futures turned lower after the report and near midday May was down 1-1/4 cents and July down 1 cent the day.