Rallies in the wheat market over the last few months have been like trying to push a rock uphill. The week ahead looks to give the market a significant test of whether that burden is just too heavy for the market to move.
USDA made the job more difficult with its December supply and demand report last week, which increased carryout by 18 million bushels due to lower food use and increased imports. USDA may still be too low on its export projection — buyers who want quality wheat don't have many choices, though price sensitive importers have a variety or origins to choose from. But even with a lower June 1 stocks estimate, wheat supplies may grow in the coming year.
Farm Futures acreage survey showed seedings could be down more than 2% for 2008, not enough to keep stocks from growing even more, topping 700 million bushels, unless weather turns negative. The market sees its first indications on that score this week. A surge of Artic air brought below zero readings into