Wheat Tries To Swim Upstream Against A Strong Current

Prices forced to new lows.

The wheat market continues to look for a lifeline, but instead finds only an anchor tossed its way, forcing prices to new lows last week. While it's high time for a seasonal rally and there's at least some supportive news fundamentally, supply and demand don't mean much at this point.

Indeed, wheat looked relatively weak last week even on days when the other markets were trying to bounce. As October gives way to November it becomes increasingly difficult for wheat to rally, thanks to a new crop from the Southern Hemisphere ready to come on to the market. While production will be lower than originally expected in both Australia and Argentina, shortages of wheat right now are mostly a distance memory.

The new crop also appears to be off to a good, if not great start. While wet weather last week delayed the last seedings on the Plains, conditions are well above average. USDA was supposed to release national ratings last week, but did not. Nonetheless, condition reports out of key states show hard red winter wheat is off to its best start in years, maybe ever. Kansas reported 80% of its wheat in good to excellent shape, an unheard of level. To read Bryce Knorr's complete weekly wheat review click HERE.

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