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Livestock Call By John Otte

Bid-ask spread parked at $6, thin volume could bring wide swings in cash hog prices.
John Otte 
Published: Feb 3, 2012

February 3, 2012
Opens
Fed Cattle,
 steady to higher
Feeder Cattle, lower
Lean Hogs, higher

World equities traded higher today. Wall Street is cautious ahead of today's report on January job growth.

Cash cattle. USDA reported mostly inactive trading on light demand in all feeding regions Thursday.

Cash cattle bids remain unchanged at $120 live basis in Kansas and Texas/western Oklahoma. Cattle feeders continue to price their animals at $126 and higher.

Bids remain sparse in Nebraska, while owners there and in Colorado are asking from $2 to $3 over February live cattle futures.

Sales last week were at mostly $124 live in Texas/western Oklahoma and Kansas. In Nebraska, live sales were mostly $124 as well, and dressed prices were from $198 to mostly $200.

Trading isn't expected to develop until late today.

Thursday's afternoon boxed beef cutout values were lower on Choice and steady on Select on moderate demand and moderate to heavy offerings. Choice was down $1.08 at $183.19 with Select down 15 cents at $178.53. Load count totaled 288.

USDA estimated Thursday's cattle slaughter at 119,000. The 482,000 cattle slaughtered so far this week are down from 490,000 a week ago and 485,000 a year ago.

Falling demand from processors could again weigh on cash markets this week following lower prices last week. The thin volume of purchases over the last week could nonetheless lead to higher demand as some packers likely will need to add to supplies. But bear in mind this week's show lists are a tad larger.

The latest HedgersEdge packer margin index was minus $83.05 per head, compared with minus $89.60 the previous day. This is an estimate of packer returns on cattle slaughtered and processed expressed in the form of an index.

Weekly exports of beef reported yesterday were lower than the week before. Exports often slump in January and February. Investors watch exports closely. Last year sales to foreign markets played a key role in lifting U.S. beef prices record high.

Cattle futures. Fed cattle fell Thursday as a stronger dollar added to lingering concerns that demand from beef packers is weakening.

Forecasts for milder weather in the Great Plains also undercut some support for February contracts. Severe winter storms can disrupt livestock markets and drive prices higher in the short term.

Market participants nonetheless continue to watch the forecasts and track the path of a winter storm expected to dump heavy snow in eastern Colorado, northwestern counties of Kansas and into western and south-central regions of Nebraska. The storm is predicted to move across the region through today.

Meanwhile concerns persist that weak beef demand is filtering back to weaken demand for live cattle. Meat packers have faced a months-long run of negative profit margin estimates, a trend that's finally forced the industry to lower its weekly slaughter rates, which have been falling for the last three weeks.

February fed cattle fell 55 cents to $125.15. April cattle slipped 32 cents to $128.90.

March feeders slipped 47 cents to $155.37, pulling back from their latest record high, recorded Wednesday. Most remaining contracts retreated lesser amounts.

Cash hogs. Predictions for today's cash prices are mostly steady.

Reportedly well-booked packers may not need to buy many hogs until next week.  The result could be wide swings in USDA's average prices when some plants step in or out of the market on a given day, even if the majority are paying steady prices.

Thursday's hogs sold higher in the east and flat in the west.

USDA's afternoon reports showed Thursday's:

* Iowa-Minnesota hogs dipped 20 cents to average $87.66.

* Western Corn Belt hogs fell 6 cents to average $87.13

* Eastern Corn Belt hogs gained $2.66 to average $83.08.

Price changes are compared to USDA's prior day report for Wednesday.

USDA estimated Thursday's hog slaughter at 416,000. The 1.650 million hogs slaughtered so far this week are down from 1.702 million last week, but up from last year's bad-weather reduced slaughter of 1.431 million. Projections for Saturday's slaughter remain from 85,000 to 90,000 head. The week's total is expected around 2.150 million.

Weaker loins trimmed Thursday's cutout 32 cents to $84.95. Load count totaled 110. Thursday's slump followed three days of advances. Yesterday's cutout reversal could weigh on today's cash prices.

Dow Jones estimated Thursday's packer margin to minus $9.36, compared with minus $7.34 Wednesday.

Terminal hogs sold mixed, from 50 cents lower to $1 higher. Live tops ran $59 to $61.

Hog futures. Lean hogs were mostly lower Thursday as weaker prices in cash markets undermined recent gains and encouraged some traders to take profits.

Softness in cash hog prices is a potential leading indicator of weak demand among pork processors, who have been facing some of the poorest profit margins seen in the last year.

Wholesale pork cutout values advancing the first three days of this week limited losses. Yesterday's cutout reversal removes that lift.

February fell five cents to $87.57. April hogs slid 60 cents to $89.75.

 



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Tagged: usda, Corn Belt, lean hogs, cattle futures, hog futures

Comments
Read comments from others and share your own thoughts.
Please provide the answer to the following question:

 = 
Agreed. Cow-calf producers face the same cost-price squeeze as do all livestock proucers and grain users. Over the last five years all grain users have had to make adjustments to higher grain prices. Cattle, hogs and even poultry have responded by trimming production--during extensive losses--in efforts to tighten supplies enough to pull meat and milk prices up to profitabole levels. Cow-calf producers are particularly vulnerable because their biological cycle is longer than for hogs and much longer than for poultry. Plus high grain prices up rents for crop land. That in turn boosts pasture rents. Record prices do seem likely ahead for calves. But record prices won't necessarily equate into profits. That's why focusing on efficiency and working to capture and maintain a margin is so critical all across agriculture. J Otte
Posted by Anonymous on January 10 at 9:08 AM
I would enjoy to see the price of feeder calfs go to $2.00 so that a cow/calf producer could make a little profit and get paid for all of the work and investments and sacrafices endured. The price is always in the news as being so good, and high all time records. But the facts are that it is not even worth producing calfs for that money. It should be a minimum of $2.00 at least. This is a big reason why the US beef herd is so low, and going to stay that way too. Not enough profit, if any.
Posted by Anonymous on January 9 at 9:12 AM
Come to invest in cattles business here in Brazil,we have good pastures at low cost our the feedlot with a cheap labor. e-mail=xerifecountry@hotmail.com
Posted by Anonymous on January 4 at 9:45 AM
yep
Posted by Anonymous on October 12 at 10:52 AM
We have a 50 acre farms located between Ada and Cascade, Michigan-5 miles from the Gerald R. Ford airport. We have been on our land over 50 years; we have not applied pesticides during this time. We have woods, wetlands, water and an abundance of wild life. There were 15 dairy cows here when we purchased the property. We would like to find someone who needs extra room to keep cattle, goats, sheep; also who would possibly be interested in converting raw milk into cheese. Roger Plafkin Plafkin Farms(View on Photobucket.com and Webshots.com) Ada, Michigan 49301 1-616-676-0590 plafkin@juno.com
Posted by Anonymous on October 7 at 5:16 AM
 
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